So Labor Day is upon us, which means that for all intents and purposes, summer is over. Believe me, writing that is weird, because as I write this it is something like 80+ degrees outside. But weather aside, as far as Hollywood is concerned, the major summer movie blockbuster season was over with the release of The Expendables a couple weeks back. And I think it can now be made official: summer 2012 was THE summer of the super hero.
In the final box office tally of summer 2012, the three biggest movies were all comic book super hero movies. Avengers is the third biggest movie domestically of all time, destroying even the most ambitious of expectations. Worldwide, it made a billion and a half dollars. The Dark Knight Rises ended Christopher Nolan’s Batman trilogy with dignity intact, and is currently on track to be the number seven film released domestically of all time, also with a billion dollars made worldwide. And oh yeah…at #3 this year is the red headed step child of the summer, The Amazing Spider-Man, which despite its detractors, went on to make $260 million domestic, and nearly $800 million worldwide. True, actual ticket sales are at their lowest in twenty years, but the success of these three mega hits in a summer filled with misses shows that even in the toughest movie going market, one can almost always count on the nerd dollar. A lot of people have been wondering when the comic book movie boom would end. Detractors have been saying “any minute” for what seems like years now. But looking at the box office tallies of this summer, it is pretty clear the American public is anything but sick of super heroes.
Going into Summer 2012, a lot of people were saying this would be the peak of the comic book movie juggernaut that has been with us since Summer 2000, when Bryan Singer’s X-Men started the modern super hero movie ball rolling in earnest. But was this past summer the peak of this phenomenon, or is this just the begining of the second phase, leading not only to Avengers 2 in 2015, but also Warner Brother’s response to the Avengers in the form of Justice League? Sure, a Justice League movie has been rumored for years now, and even once almost happened. But that was before Avengers made over a billion dollars at the box office; now Warner Brothers has to respond to Marvel’s success with their own super hero mega group flick. Warners has apparently approached directors from Ben Affeck to David Yates to the Wachowskis in a desperate effort to have this puppy ready by Summer 2015. It is a safe bet to assume that this time, when it comes to the League, they’re serious. On top of all that, based on how the last two summers have played out, not to mention how the next two summers are set to roll out, There will almost certainly be another super hero film that year, although the real question is who will dare to take on the JLA AND the Avengers in Summer 2015?
The ultimate super hero box office battle is set to take place in three years, when the Avengers take on the Justice League. Who would have thought THAT would ever happen?
Although there are plenty of comic book and super hero movies scheduled for next Summer as well as 2014, none are as likely to be as huge as an Avengers sequel or a Justice League movie. Right now, the sequel to the Avengers is maybe the most anticipated sequel since maybe The Empire Strikes Back. And even though there hasn’t been the same lead up, Justice League is at least as anticipated as the first Avengers was, as a JLA movie not only teams up Superman and Batman for the first time in live action, but also introduces live action versions of the Flash, Aquaman and Wonder Woman. While it is a safe bet that almost all of the super hero flicks coming over the next two Summer seasons will do well (only Guardians of the Galaxy is the real question mark) none are going to have the epic must-see feel of either of these potential 2015 movies. Add to that a potential third super hero flick into the mix that summer, and summer 2015 is set to dwarf summer 2012 in a big way. If there is a super hero movie peak, it is likely at least three years away still.
Avengers 2, The Justice League, and…..?
It is fair to say we can make a solid, educated guess on what the third super hero movie of summer 2015 won’t be, by process of elimination. Iron Man 3, The Wolverine, and Man of Steel are coming out next Summer, 2013, with Thor: The Dark World following that winter. So it is highly unlikely any sequel to those movies are coming out as soon as 2015, especially with both Thor and Iron Man presumably starring in Avengers 2. Same logic applies to Superman in a JLA movie, that squashes his chances even more of having another solo film that summer. Summer 2014 has sequels to The Amazing Spider-Man, Captain America: The Winter Soldier and X-Men: Days of Future Past. So forget any X-Men movies in 2015 to go head to head with the Avengers or the JLA, and no Spidey or Cap sequels will follow that fast. Also, according to every reliable source, DC/Warners won’t have another super hero property out after Man of Steel until 2015, when Justice League is set to hit. In all likelihood, the third comic book property that summer will be a Marvel one, with one other notable possibility. But what? Who will be the third super hero movie to go toe to toe with the Avengers and the JLA? Here are my best guesses on who will likely complete the ultimate super hero movie summer three years from now.
Option #1: Daredevil
Fox is just about to give up their rights to the Daredevil franchise to Marvel Studios/Disney. A grittier, more realistic take on a super hero might fill in the void left over from the end of the Christopher Nolan Batman movies, as the Batman in a Justice League flick will definitely be different. With Daredevil, It’s still a super hero movie, but it would be as dramatically different from Avengers and JLA as humanly possible, and not feel like direct competion. I’d say this difference gives Daredevil the best shot.
Option #2: The Fantastic Four
While Fox was willing to let the Daredevil rights go back to Marvel, it his highly unlikey that they will allow Marvel’s First Family to go anywhere anytime soon. We know they have a reboot of that franchise coming soon, with Chronicle’s Josh Trank at the helm, but will they dare to compete with both the Avengers and the Justice League? It is a 50/50 proposition really; an FF movie could benifit from super team mania that summer, or it could just get crushed between those two giants. I suppose it would ultimately depend on how good it is. It would amazing in a way if three of the four longest running super teams being published made it to movie theaters all in one summer. The twelve year old version of me’s head might explode.
Option #3: Dr. Strange
Marvel Studios has been teasing a Dr. Strange film for a while now, and it seemed the front runner for their 2014 movie until Guardians of the Galaxy took that slot. With Guardians, Marvel is going knee deep into outer space territory, and it seems after that the world of magic is the next logical step. Dr Strange could tie in somewhat to the overall Marvel Movie universe, while still being tangential to the greater Avengers story. Dr Strange, along with Ant-Man, are the last two Stan Lee created major Marvel properties from the 60’s who haven’t yet had a movie. I’d like to see the old man get his cameo.
Option #4: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Although the TMNT reboot was scheduled to be released in early 2014, the script review that leaked recently was so scathingly negative as to probably make producer Michael Bay reconsider the direction they are going in and push that movie back, maybe as far as summer 2015. Even though the Ninja Turtles are a super hero team of a sort, there is no chance anyone would ever confuse them with the Avengers or the JLA. They could carve their own little niche that summer.
There will be plenty of geek speculation for the next three years as to how summer 2015 will turn out, and there will be plenty of comic book films from now till then to keep us all excited (not to mention NON comic book films….I hear they still make those) But all eyes are on summer 2015, and after that….then maybe we can talk about whether super hero movies have peaked or not. In the meantime, let the speculation continue.