We’re less than 24 hours from one of the most exciting days on any movie prognosticator’s calendar, Oscar Nomination Day! This year, thanks to a wide spectrum of strong filmmaking, many of the races are overcrowded with talent dying to hear their name called tomorrow morning. Here’s how I envision the 6 major categories playing out, when the Nominations are announced tomorrow:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This race seems fairly locked down, but teetering on the edge of in/out is ironically one of the most powerful women in the world, Oprah Winfrey. While I was on the anti-Oprah side of the argument, her star-power alone makes her a difficult omission by the Academy. Although the Golden Globes passes her over with ease, I don’t see the Oscars doing the same. As a result, Blue Jasmine‘s Sally Hawkins looks to be the odd-woman odd in this dogfight.
Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska) and Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
No one quite knows where the biggest wildcard this year, The Wolf of Wall Street, stacks up in any of the major battles. Will the Academy embrace the excellent work from a legendary director, or will they turn their back to it amidst controversy that the film glorifies its subject matter? If the Oscars go all-in with Scorsese’s work, then Jonah Hill has a legitimate shot of hearing his name called tomorrow. However, with an always over-stuffed Supporting Actor race, I find Hill to be on the outside looking in, unfortunately. The Academy will find other ways of recognizing The Wolf of Wall Street, while Jonah Hill will sadly miss the cut like other Oscar-hopefuls such as the late James Gandolfini, the “never really had a shot” James Franco and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks.
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
BEST ACTRESS
Plenty has been made about Meryl Streep‘s surprising defeat this weekend at the hands of American Hustle‘s Amy Adams during the Golden Globes. But it’s important to remember that the Globes do their own thing, and it isn’t necessarily a sign of things to come. Streep has a proven track record with the Academy, and I’d put my money on those odds any day. Also, while attempting to ride the Amy-Adams-wave, I searched near and far for a proper exclusion on her behalf. Sure,American Hustle is backed by some much-needed momentum, but outside of Emma Thompson from the quickly fading Saving Mr. Banks, I just don’t see the room for Adams. Sorry, can’t sit here!
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
BEST ACTOR
Once again, we’re tasked with deciphering The Wolf of Wall Street‘s effect on the voting body. And while Jonah Hill is going to find himself couch surfing in early March, I anticipate that there’s enough love to catapult Leonardo DiCaprio into the final five. It’s a bold move considering the long documented history of Leo-snubs, even as recent as last year’s Django Unchained. Christian Bale always felt like an outsider and Inside Llewyn Davis‘ Oscar Issac never built a head of steam, but the biggest casualty at Leo’s expense is the wonderful Robert Redford. The All Is Lost star refused to play “the game” and it looks like he could very well miss out on a nomination because of of it.
Nominees: Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
BEST DIRECTOR
When it comes to the directing race, the Golden Globes seemed to reinforce what we already knew … How can you not reward Alfonso Cuaron‘s groundbreaking work in Gravity? While there’s three secure picks along with Steve McQueen and David O. Russell, any of the other five major players find themselves scratching and clawing for the final two spots. It’s really a coin flip as to how this could unfold, but I feel like Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Spike Jonze (Her) and the Coen brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) will be left of the list.
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
BEST PICTURE
Finally, it’s the wacky and wild circus surrounding the Best Picture race. Ever since the rule changes have allowed anywhere from five to ten nominees depending on number of first-place votes, these predictions have become a refined art that many of us still can’t seem to master. For me, I expect nine titles to make the cut. Unfortunately, that means omissions to Blue Jasmine, Philomena, Lee Daniels’ The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks.
Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street
Although the DVD and Video-On-Demand selections have been weak the past few months (December’s picks), January makes up for it in a big way. This month is loaded with some of my favorite films of the year, as well as a couple Oscar-possibilities. It was difficult to narrow down my top three picks of the month with a long list of worthy releases, but here’s what I came up with.
#1. Rush
Until the December release of David O. Russell’s Academy Award Best Picture contender, American Hustle, Ron Howard’s Rush spent a large portion of 2013 atop my favorite movies of the year. One could argue it was low the expectations I had upon entering the theatre, but in actuality it has everything to do with a dynamite performance from Oscar-hopeful, Daniel Bruhl, and a thrilling sports story superbly executed by its director. Formula 1 racing captured the attention of the entire world during the 1970s, and two of the fiercest drivers on the planet, James Hunt (played by Chris Hemsworth) and Niki Lauda (Bruhl), embarked on a legendary rivalry. Rush is far more than a high-octane racing movie, it has layers and depth that enable it to stand on its own as one of the finest sports dramas in years. It’s an absolute Must-See feature. (January 28th)
#2. Short Term 12
One of the year’s most tender, yet heartbreaking, films comes in the form of Destin Cretton’s directorial debut, Short Term 12. This unknown indie drama packs an enormous amount of emotion thanks to a genuine script and an unbelievable performance from Brie Larson. The gifted young actress is more than deserving of Oscar-notoriety, however, she appears to be on the outside looking in. Larson is far from the lone shining star in the film, the cast is flooded from top to bottom with authentic performances. In fact, supporting star John Gallagher Jr. even landed on my year’s Most Underrated Performances list. Watch as these twenty-somethings spend their workdays consoling and molding youth at a foster-care facility for at-risk children. It’s an eye-opening journey into the lives of our forgotten youth. (January 14th)
#3. Captain Phillips
The major consensus is Tom Hanks will find his way into the Best Actor race for his showing in this year’s true-story action adventure, Captain Phillips. This would mark the 6th time Hanks has been handed an Oscar Nomination, and he truly earns it once again. Captain Phillips follows a cargo vessel taken under siege by a band of Somali pirates. Through the guidance of their tactical captain, the vessel’s crew must work together to survive the ordeal. Director Paul Greengrass is best known as the visionary behind the second and third installment of the Bourne franchise, and here the action is equally as effective. Well paced and highly compelling, Captain Phillips is another strong effort from one of the greatest actors the world has ever seen. (January 21st)
Honorable Mention: There’s no shortage of other sensational selections finding their way to DVD this month. Two Sundance Film Festival entries that are both worthy of checking out are The Spectacular Now (1/14) and the gut-wrenching true-story of Oscar Grant in Fruitvale Station (1/14). As for some Oscar-Caliber movies, Cate Blanchett is a frontrunner in the Best Actress category for her fine role in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine (1/21) and there’s a few fringe players fighting to make the Oscar cut from Lee Daniels’ The Butler (1/14). Another rising Oscar contender comes in the form of a potential posthumous nomination for the late-great James Gandolfini in the romantic-comedy Enough Said (1/14). Horror fans have some interesting options arriving on DVD in January, Carrie (1/14) and the buzzed-about You’re Next (1/14) are available this month as well.
After the ballooned success from writer/director Woody Allen’s imaginative indie comedy, Midnight in Paris, the legend of Hollywood continues to please audiences in the twilight of his career with Blue Jasmine. Allen’s latest release not only marks the theatrical return of Andrew Dice Clay, it also has the writer/director matching talents with Academy Award Winner Cate Blanchett. With all of its parts perfectly in place, Blue Jasmine is another winning effort filmed in typical Woody Allen fashion.
Cate Blanchett stars as Jasmine, an over-the-top socialite who is forced to move in with her adopted sister Ginger (Sally Hawkins) in the wake of her crumbling marriage to a crooked financial investor (Alec Baldwin). Completely self-obsessed and undeniably shallow, Jasmine can’t seem to escape the trail of destruction that follows her into the next phase of her life.
Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine deserves to be both lauded and bashed for a multitude of interconnected reasons. While scratching and clawing your way through the film’s sluggish 98 minute running time, you can’t help but revel in the onscreen brilliance of Oscar Winner Cate Blanchett. It’s extremely challenging to center a movie around such a despicable and unlikable character, however, the skilled actress delivers a seemingly effortless performance. Blanchett’s onscreen work definitely stands out as one of the finest Lead Actress performances that I’ve seen all year. So impressive, in fact, that even with highly anticipated roles such as Princess Diana (Naomi Watts) and Grace Kelly (Nicole Kidman) patiently waiting to make an awards-season strike, I still wouldn’t count her out of Oscar contention just yet. In addition to Blanchett, Allen maximizes the talent from his cast by sculpting secondary characters that demonstrate an enormous amount of depth. Extraordinary turns from Sally Hawkins, Bobby Cannavale and Andrew Dice Clay simply reinforce the fact that Blue Jasmine is a superbly acted feature.
For as wonderful as its cast is, Blue Jasmine struggles to achieve in many other areas. For example, the film’s cyclic approach and repetitive nature help generate an interesting thought … not much really happens in the movie. We’re given a completely inexplicable title character who constantly drowns in her own self pity. She tells the same stories, lives by the same mantra and expects her life to change somehow. It’s an irritating facet that’s hard to ignore and even more difficult to overcome. In many ways I found solace in Allen’s work by convincing myself that Jasmine is simply the glue that ties together a collection of more engaging sub-stories concerning its secondary characters. Although Jasmine may never learn from her mistakes, perhaps those affected by her nonsense can improve for the better. Thanks to Allen’s universe of notable supporting characters, Blue Jasmine conquers its faults and makes for a worthwhile feature.
I’ve always enjoyed the carefully calculated blend of drama and comedy that’s prevalent in any Woody Allen film. The writer/director has his own style of telling what often feels like a fable, and Blue Jasmine is no exception. Allen’s latest effort has heart and meaning, even if you have to jump over some hurdles to get there. If you’ve found yourself enjoying other Woody Allen films of the past, then it’s worth taking a chance on Blue Jasmine.
GRADE: 3/5
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