We’re less than 24 hours from one of the most exciting days on any movie prognosticator’s calendar, Oscar Nomination Day! This year, thanks to a wide spectrum of strong filmmaking, many of the races are overcrowded with talent dying to hear their name called tomorrow morning. Here’s how I envision the 6 major categories playing out, when the Nominations are announced tomorrow:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This race seems fairly locked down, but teetering on the edge of in/out is ironically one of the most powerful women in the world, Oprah Winfrey. While I was on the anti-Oprah side of the argument, her star-power alone makes her a difficult omission by the Academy. Although the Golden Globes passes her over with ease, I don’t see the Oscars doing the same. As a result, Blue Jasmine‘s Sally Hawkins looks to be the odd-woman odd in this dogfight.
Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska) and Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
No one quite knows where the biggest wildcard this year, The Wolf of Wall Street, stacks up in any of the major battles. Will the Academy embrace the excellent work from a legendary director, or will they turn their back to it amidst controversy that the film glorifies its subject matter? If the Oscars go all-in with Scorsese’s work, then Jonah Hill has a legitimate shot of hearing his name called tomorrow. However, with an always over-stuffed Supporting Actor race, I find Hill to be on the outside looking in, unfortunately. The Academy will find other ways of recognizing The Wolf of Wall Street, while Jonah Hill will sadly miss the cut like other Oscar-hopefuls such as the late James Gandolfini, the “never really had a shot” James Franco and Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks.
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
BEST ACTRESS
Plenty has been made about Meryl Streep‘s surprising defeat this weekend at the hands of American Hustle‘s Amy Adams during the Golden Globes. But it’s important to remember that the Globes do their own thing, and it isn’t necessarily a sign of things to come. Streep has a proven track record with the Academy, and I’d put my money on those odds any day. Also, while attempting to ride the Amy-Adams-wave, I searched near and far for a proper exclusion on her behalf. Sure,American Hustle is backed by some much-needed momentum, but outside of Emma Thompson from the quickly fading Saving Mr. Banks, I just don’t see the room for Adams. Sorry, can’t sit here!
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
BEST ACTOR
Once again, we’re tasked with deciphering The Wolf of Wall Street‘s effect on the voting body. And while Jonah Hill is going to find himself couch surfing in early March, I anticipate that there’s enough love to catapult Leonardo DiCaprio into the final five. It’s a bold move considering the long documented history of Leo-snubs, even as recent as last year’s Django Unchained. Christian Bale always felt like an outsider and Inside Llewyn Davis‘ Oscar Issac never built a head of steam, but the biggest casualty at Leo’s expense is the wonderful Robert Redford. The All Is Lost star refused to play “the game” and it looks like he could very well miss out on a nomination because of of it.
Nominees: Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
BEST DIRECTOR
When it comes to the directing race, the Golden Globes seemed to reinforce what we already knew … How can you not reward Alfonso Cuaron‘s groundbreaking work in Gravity? While there’s three secure picks along with Steve McQueen and David O. Russell, any of the other five major players find themselves scratching and clawing for the final two spots. It’s really a coin flip as to how this could unfold, but I feel like Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Spike Jonze (Her) and the Coen brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis) will be left of the list.
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
BEST PICTURE
Finally, it’s the wacky and wild circus surrounding the Best Picture race. Ever since the rule changes have allowed anywhere from five to ten nominees depending on number of first-place votes, these predictions have become a refined art that many of us still can’t seem to master. For me, I expect nine titles to make the cut. Unfortunately, that means omissions to Blue Jasmine, Philomena, Lee Daniels’ The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks.
Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska and The Wolf of Wall Street
Although the DVD and Video-On-Demand selections have been weak the past few months (December’s picks), January makes up for it in a big way. This month is loaded with some of my favorite films of the year, as well as a couple Oscar-possibilities. It was difficult to narrow down my top three picks of the month with a long list of worthy releases, but here’s what I came up with.
#1. Rush
Until the December release of David O. Russell’s Academy Award Best Picture contender, American Hustle, Ron Howard’s Rush spent a large portion of 2013 atop my favorite movies of the year. One could argue it was low the expectations I had upon entering the theatre, but in actuality it has everything to do with a dynamite performance from Oscar-hopeful, Daniel Bruhl, and a thrilling sports story superbly executed by its director. Formula 1 racing captured the attention of the entire world during the 1970s, and two of the fiercest drivers on the planet, James Hunt (played by Chris Hemsworth) and Niki Lauda (Bruhl), embarked on a legendary rivalry. Rush is far more than a high-octane racing movie, it has layers and depth that enable it to stand on its own as one of the finest sports dramas in years. It’s an absolute Must-See feature. (January 28th)
#2. Short Term 12
One of the year’s most tender, yet heartbreaking, films comes in the form of Destin Cretton’s directorial debut, Short Term 12. This unknown indie drama packs an enormous amount of emotion thanks to a genuine script and an unbelievable performance from Brie Larson. The gifted young actress is more than deserving of Oscar-notoriety, however, she appears to be on the outside looking in. Larson is far from the lone shining star in the film, the cast is flooded from top to bottom with authentic performances. In fact, supporting star John Gallagher Jr. even landed on my year’s Most Underrated Performances list. Watch as these twenty-somethings spend their workdays consoling and molding youth at a foster-care facility for at-risk children. It’s an eye-opening journey into the lives of our forgotten youth. (January 14th)
#3. Captain Phillips
The major consensus is Tom Hanks will find his way into the Best Actor race for his showing in this year’s true-story action adventure, Captain Phillips. This would mark the 6th time Hanks has been handed an Oscar Nomination, and he truly earns it once again. Captain Phillips follows a cargo vessel taken under siege by a band of Somali pirates. Through the guidance of their tactical captain, the vessel’s crew must work together to survive the ordeal. Director Paul Greengrass is best known as the visionary behind the second and third installment of the Bourne franchise, and here the action is equally as effective. Well paced and highly compelling, Captain Phillips is another strong effort from one of the greatest actors the world has ever seen. (January 21st)
Honorable Mention: There’s no shortage of other sensational selections finding their way to DVD this month. Two Sundance Film Festival entries that are both worthy of checking out are The Spectacular Now (1/14) and the gut-wrenching true-story of Oscar Grant in Fruitvale Station (1/14). As for some Oscar-Caliber movies, Cate Blanchett is a frontrunner in the Best Actress category for her fine role in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine (1/21) and there’s a few fringe players fighting to make the Oscar cut from Lee Daniels’ The Butler (1/14). Another rising Oscar contender comes in the form of a potential posthumous nomination for the late-great James Gandolfini in the romantic-comedy Enough Said (1/14). Horror fans have some interesting options arriving on DVD in January, Carrie (1/14) and the buzzed-about You’re Next (1/14) are available this month as well.
It’s been more than a decade since Tom Hanks has landed a swoon-worthy kind of role for the Academy to recognize. With back-to-back Oscar wins in the Best Actor category for marvelous performances in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump, Hanks spent much of the 90s and early 2000s nestled comfortably at the peak of the awards season mountain. The brilliant artist returns in 2013 with a pair of highly anticipated true-story roles as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks and Paul Greengrass’ self-titled Captain Phillips. As it appears, the stars have aligned once again and Tom Hanks is finally back atop the proverbial mountain.
Richard Phillips (played by Hanks) is a hard-nosed and dedicated Captain of the cargo vessel Maersk Alabama. On a typical voyage to deliver food and supplies around eastern Africa and the middle east, a band of Somali pirates hijack Phillips’ ship and unarmed crew. Desperate to keep himself and his team out of harm’s way, Captain Phillips demonstrates remarkable heroics throughout this trying ordeal.
Relentlessly tense and nerve-racking beyond belief, action guru Paul Greengrass summons one the most suspenseful movies of the year. Captain Phillips is a lengthy journey filled with highs, lows and just about everything in between. But rather than catering to an all-too-easy “good vs evil” approach implemented by many run-of-the-mill directors floating around Hollywood these days, Greengrass and writer Billy Ray mold together an honest and multi-layered film. Not only does Captain Phillips venture through the minute-after-minute terror experienced by the hijacked crew, the feature also dives deep into the desperate mindset of the vessel’s captors. The ambitious attempt to witness the entire story surrounding this historic event allows Captain Phillips to develop into a more authentic and believable thrill ride.
Despite crafting a captivating and gut-wrenching encounter, Greengrass misses the mark on a few key areas. For starters, the well-rounded director over-extends every single aspect of the film. He could have easily attained his goal by cutting many of the feature’s scenes in half. Whether it’s the intense bickering and power struggle between the pirates or the Red Light/Green Light back-and-forth by the Navy Seals team near the film’s conclusion, Captain Phillips is filled with anxiety-overkill and its clearly a deterrent. Furthermore, the movie’s third act rings all too familiar to last year’s Best Picture Nominee, Zero Dark Thirty. Therefore, being so fresh in our minds and far superior to this rehashed effort, Captain Phillips becomes a poor man’s version of Kathryn Bigelow’s hit … but still worth the price of admission.
Tom Hanks has always been a magnificent performer, and his role in the action/drama Captain Phillips reiterates that notion. It doesn’t matter if he’s winning Golden Statues or not, Hanks is one of the greatest actors of all-time. And once again, you won’t be disappointed with this one. If you can handle the anxiety and withstand the suspense, then you can’t go wrong with Captain Phillips.
GRADE: 4/5
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